Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 20.518761 24.653417 29.192639 34.518049 40.565846 47.191925 54.970999
2025-10-19 14.620260 20.079675 26.674825 35.104762 45.462315 57.639882 72.897258
2025-10-26 11.428028 17.467468 25.326592 36.032608 49.945600 67.115267 89.577422
2025-11-02 8.829337 14.915356 23.391153 35.601866 52.245830 73.625440 102.588797
2025-11-09 7.122391 13.191959 22.176610 35.766097 55.052175 80.659357 116.344855
2025-11-16 5.735671 11.634294 20.895744 35.557519 57.146948 86.674677 128.861383
2025-11-23 4.508713 10.057221 19.309542 34.634876 58.022277 90.923317 139.038842
2025-11-30 3.893106 9.405384 19.063457 35.650640 61.682318 99.107379 154.818924
2025-12-07 3.144020 8.331019 17.943327 35.125843 62.922661 103.823256 165.859982
2025-12-14 2.653866 7.655828 17.404586 35.453321 65.423963 110.399563 179.698026
2025-12-21 2.033932 6.537462 15.881956 33.932491 64.849616 112.326160 186.821215
2025-12-28 1.806597 6.265267 15.923053 35.117217 68.671186 120.974163 204.009755
2026-01-04 1.542972 5.862947 15.705825 35.919909 72.085412 129.415270 221.627812
2026-01-11 1.299537 5.444513 15.400372 36.541670 75.256211 137.659530 239.330559
2026-01-18 1.117866 5.140187 15.287213 37.499768 79.032462 146.975710 258.930517
2026-01-25 0.883857 4.582782 14.506550 37.055567 80.290805 152.278462 272.494667
2026-02-01 0.723834 4.199907 14.062305 37.224965 82.621377 159.366528 289.002259
2026-02-08 0.576232 3.788753 13.469444 37.009830 84.206280 165.248533 303.745013
2026-02-15 0.431931 3.302921 12.583209 36.058074 84.330792 168.659306 314.618480
2026-02-22 0.373890 3.165110 12.609192 37.105880 88.286798 178.656291 336.305205
2026-03-01 0.285159 2.814867 11.964440 36.564555 89.126360 183.330543 349.472235
2026-03-08 0.232007 2.613244 11.713866 36.902353 91.690494 191.048848 367.786237
2026-03-15 0.157596 2.201625 10.713650 35.333408 90.331765 191.824846 374.642121